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China 艾德ucation:Bright future

文章作者:基金 上传时间:2019-09-11

K12after-school tutoring is a secular growth sector

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Education spending vs. market size - Education industry annual spending is c.

    We analyze the supply/demand condition of China's K12after-school tutoringmarket and conclude the sector will likely see secular growth in the next fiveyears. We believe positive demographic growth, an increased number ofwealthy families, and greater education awareness are the demand drivers.However, China's supply of top universities is still insufficient and theadmission rate remains low. This has led to surging needs for after-schooltutoring services. We forecast the K12tutoring market to see a 13-14% CAGRin 2017-22E, assuming: 1) K12students see a CAGR of 3%, 2) tutoringpenetration rate climbs 2.5% p.a.; and 3) ASP rises (like-for-like basis) 5% p.a.

(一)

    USD 4.6trn (vs. market cap USD 0.1trn). The market size of China educationin 2017 is c. RMB 9trn. Breaking this down: Government fiscal spending (RMB4.23trn), Urban spending (RMB 2.25trn), Rural spending RMB 1.26trn and Fixedinvestment (RMB 0.78trn).

    More demand for education in the long term

看完朋友推荐的电影《你好,疯子》,在2017年1月1日凌晨三点醒来,忽然想起几周前另一位朋友推荐的《黑镜》第三季第二集《终极游戏》。

    K-12 market size - The K-12 tutoring market size is c. RMB800bn, while the top5 player accounts for a total of less than 5% market share (c. RMB30-40bn). K-12tutoring market in China remains highly fragmented with plenty of headroom forboth industry growth and market share consolidation. As for K-12 quality brandssuch as EDU/TAL, there will be a large opportunity for lower tier cities penetration.

    China’s Gaokao (college entrance exam)-takers as a percentage of thenewborn population increased to 65% in 2016from only 25% in 2002, whilethe birth rate remained unchanged at 0.11-0.12%. However, we now seenewborns increasing from 2016, thanks to the government’s two-child policy.(1.3m more newborns in 2016). Besides the positive demographic drive, moremiddle-class families are increasing spending on K12tutoring for children. Percapita consumption on education has tripled in Beijing, Shanghai and Jiangsuin the past decade amid increased education awareness, with more familiesinvesting in education, in order for their children to get into top universities.… but the reality is: China’s supply of top universities is still insufficientAdmission rates into top universities (Project 985and 211universities) remainlow at less than 3% on average. Although students from tier 1cities such asBeijing/Shanghai/Tianjin have a higher admission rate, the rate is declining.Beijing’s admission rate to the Project 211and 985universities declined to 8%in 2016from 10.6% in 2013. The intensified competition seen in Gaokao hasresulted in strong competition from primary school entry exams to high schoolentry exams, with significant records showing students from “key schools”have a much higher possibility of being admitted into top universities.Consequently, this unbalanced supply/demand creates a huge demand forafter-school tutoring, as public school education alone is perceived asinsufficient for average K12students.

一个美国背包客Cooper,在以设计恐怖游戏而知名的斋藤游戏公司做VR游戏体验员时,因为母亲的一个电话,瞬间丧命,全过程只有0.04秒。

    EDU vs. TAL - The expert believes TAL is more reliant on the teaching system andframework, while EDU is more reliant on its experienced teachers.

    Valuation and risks

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    Students number - The expert expect there will be c. 326 m students in China by2020. Breaking this down: there will be 40mn (12%) pre-school students, 212mn(65%) K-12 students and 74mn (23%) higher/vocational education students.

    We initiate Buy on EDU (New Oriental) (target price USD116) and TAL (targetprice USD35). EDU and TAL are leaders in the K12tutoring market but theyonly account for less than a combined 4% market share. We expect them togrow share robustly, and believe they will penetrate into lower tier cities toincrease their total market share. Our valuation is based on DCF, because K12-tutoring is a strong cash flow business with visible and stable growth. We alsocross-check our DCF-based valuation by PEG. Risks include: 1) change ofpolicy; 2) disease outbreak; and 3) aggressive network expansion.

大脑神经触突被同时激活的他,在这0.04秒内,经历了打地鼠的初步测试,见游戏公司的老板斋藤,进入了《哈莱克魅影》的宅子进行深入测试并崩溃退出,回家见到妈妈后彻底崩溃,这一看似漫长而曲折的内心恐怖之旅。

    AI technology - AI will become a powerful learning auxiliary for teachers/studentsand fundamentally shift the landscape of the education industry in China.

在Cooper进入虚拟世界后,他所遇到的所有恐怖元素都是他内心恐惧的投射。蜘蛛,中学同学,来自本能和童年记忆;狡诈而疯狂的炮友,丧心病狂的游戏空司,则不过是一闪而过的一丝怀疑的变形与放大。

    Big data analysis - Through big data, teachers will be able to preciselyidentify why certain students struggle with certain subjects, and address themaccordingly - teachers almost become doctors-like in this sense. Data showthat students using this system have displayed significant improvement in theiracademic performances.

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而他内心深处最大的恐惧则是,亲人在失忆中离开自己:他正是因为无法忍受父亲在老年痴呆中离世带来的伤痛而离家出走的。

因此,在太过真实的VR游戏中,看到失忆的母亲再也认不出他,才成为致命一击。

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很多时候,置我们于死地的,是我们自己内心的恐惧;而越是那些我们避之唯恐不及的伤痛,就越容易以种种变形的方式重复出现在我们的生命中,逼着我们去面对。

(二)

《你好,疯子》,则是另一场疯狂的内心博弈。

七个不同身份与性格的男女,都在经历意外事故后被莫名其妙地关进了一所万难逃离的疯人院,他们想出种种匪夷所思的方法来向院方证明自己没疯,却在这个过程中暴露出各种可笑又可悲的疯狂。

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极具反抗精神与个性魅力的记者,暴怒中差点儿掐死了老教师;抱打不平后沉浸在权利快感中的出租车司机,想要强暴性感的女公关;而看似理智实则软弱的老师、律师和宠物医生则在讨好院方到作践自我地步之际,不惜以推选更软弱的安希为院方寻找的真正的精神病人为代价,换取自身的自由。

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不管是个人英雄式的抗争,还是民主合作风的争取,那些深藏于心的阴暗面,不论是弗洛伊德所强调的人类两大本能需要性和攻击性,还是像永难愈合的伤口般深刻于心一触即痛的低自尊,又抑或集体无意识的低智迷狂,都一一浮出水面,于众目睽睽中显现。

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而几乎每次内讧的高潮都以安希的自我牺牲告终,那部代表心理救助的红色座机,则只有安希能接听。终于,在安希和主治医生的对话中,剧情反转,原来真正的病人只有她一个,其他人都不过是她的附属人格,她是人格分裂症。

他们,疼爱女儿的宠物医生,给他指引的历史老师,永远为她辩护的律师,教她穿衣打扮的性感女友,带她爬山骂人的率性司机,让她仰慕心动的耿直记者,都不过是她想象出来满足自我不同心理需求的朋友,在她孤单、自卑、迷茫、软弱时给她安慰和支撑的人。

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他们身上既有她没有活出来的人格特质,像勇敢,直率,性感等,同时也有被她压抑的人格特质,攻击性,低自尊,等。

当我们不愿承认、面对并接纳自身存在的某些特质,看不到它们背后被压抑掩藏的生命力时,我们很难不是病态的,只是程度有所不同而已。

而那些疯狂不可控的,好像要把我们逼至绝境的,往往也是被压抑而变态的,想要带我们逃出生天的。

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正如朋友所说,可悲的是,她用自己的方法保护自己,但最后却成为一种病态。实际上,当我们自觉不自觉地沉浸在自我想象的世界之中时,很容易陷入自我意识的牢笼,而囚禁我们的,不是别人,正是我们自己。

最终,在又一次精神炼狱的轮回中,安希没有听从医生的建议,她选择鼓足勇气和他们对话,让他们看到他们疯狂背后那股被遗忘的原动力,都不过是潜意识的自保,而现在,她可以选择更好的方式来保护自己,活出自己了。

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最后的彩蛋,令剧情再次反转,也不过是告诉我们,当人们陷入这样的心灵迷境,想要走出来,真是障碍重重,如果我们不能真正清醒过来,不过是从一个迷梦中醒来,再跌入另一重迷梦。

(三)

英国心理学家温尼科特说,每个人都可以看成是一个能量泡,这个能量泡在成长的过程中,必然要伸展自己,伸展就是攻击性,而攻击性,是人最原始的能量。

弗洛伊德则称,驱动人类行为的动力有两个:性和攻击。

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心理学家武志红在他的新书《巨婴国》中进一步揭示,这些都可以称之为生命力,而生命力本身无所谓好坏,如果被看见,被接纳,就会转化成好的生命力,如热情、爱意、创造力等。如果不能被看见,被接纳,就会转化为坏的生命力,如恨意、破坏性等。

不管是安希分裂出的多种人格,还是Cooper内心的恐惧,都不过是潜意识的自保方式,一旦我们能辨清这些我们不想或不敢面对的心魔背后的生命力,试着去接纳它们,让它们得以伸展流动,就能促进我们内在心灵的成长而更有力量面对真实的人生。而一味压抑,或逃避,这股能量则早晚会以更具破坏性的方式呈现,让我们不得不去面对。

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软弱、性冷淡风的安希,如果最初敢于活出自己的性感和攻击性,并试着和他人建立真实的连接而不是一味沉溺与自我的臆想,那么她也许就不会陷入分裂的疯狂。

一直逃避,不敢面对可能会失忆的母亲的Cooper,如果能接听妈妈的电话,试着向她表达自己的恐惧,也许早就能看清这份恐惧背后,恰恰是对母亲的深爱。

只有接纳和呈现真实的自我,并试着和同样真实的人们碰触,才能不断走出自我意识的迷途与局限,和自我,他人,社会,建立真实的连接,活出更舒展更有力更精彩的自我。

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希腊德尔菲神庙有一句箴言:人啊,认识你自己。

《黑镜》的编剧,布鲁克在解释片名时说,当你关掉手中的电子设备后,那逐渐黯淡的屏幕就像一面黑色的镜子,看见的只有你自己!

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科技的发达,沟通的便利,本无所谓好坏,不过也是一面我们用以照见自我的镜子,我们是借以建立真实的连接,还是把它作为新的面具,都在于我们自己。

在《黑镜》第三季的宣传海报中,赫然印着:The future is bright!

而只有我们自己,能让未来充满光明。

2017,愿我们有勇气,肯努力,活出更为真实的自我!

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