In CEEMEA, in South Africa, November trade balance numbers will be released today. Thebalance of trade is likely to remain in positive territory. South Africa’s stark improvement in itsexternal position has reduced its reliance on portfolio flows from abroad. With short-term returnsstill elevated at levels which have exhibited strong mean reversion in the past, we remainpositioned for a correction in recent ZAR appreciation via a 1-month USDZAR call spread (strikesevenly weighted at 13.00/13.50); for more details, see South Africa: Rates have rallied, now focuson FX.
On the final day before the festive period gets underway, Asia FX is seeing small mixed moves thismorning, whilst Asia CDS is marginally tighter; data releases will be highly limited today. We wishyou an enjoyable festive break.
In Latam, our Strategy team has published a note on the second ARS-Letes auction, conductedyesterday. The Treasury originally aimed to issue ARS 40bn. According to the statement, itaccepted offers for a total of ARS 30.8bn, while demand reached ARS 50.3bn. Among the ARS30.8bn placed, ARS 9.75bn came from direct placements for government entities.
Turning to Turkey, today’s Turkey Morning Meeting Notes looks deeper at the monetary and FXpolicy of the CBRT. We note that the CBRT will start receiving the payments of rediscount loans inFX, starting from February. Moreover, outstanding amount of FX sale auction scheme will increasevery gradually from here on, unless the CBRT adjusts the auctions schedule.